Two-thirds of North America could face power shortages this winter -NERC
NERC cautioned that more than half of the United States and parts of Canada, housing roughly 180 million people, could confront power shortages during severe cold spells this winter due to inadequate natural gas infrastructure. The North American Electric Reliability Corp (NERC) released its 2023-24 winter outlook, emphasizing the risk to bulk power generation and natural gas supply during prolonged, wide-area cold weather events.
The regulatory authority highlighted the vulnerability of certain regions, including the U.S. Midwest, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, South, and specific Canadian provinces, as being at the highest risk for electricity supply shortages. It warned that extreme cold conditions might cause generators to go offline in grid operators like Midcontinent ISO, PJM Interconnection, SERC Reliability Corp, and Texas’ ERCOT. Moreover, NERC expressed concerns about potential gas pipeline disruptions in New England due to limited gas infrastructure.
John Moura, NERC’s director for reliability assessment and performance analysis, underlined the insufficiency of natural gas pipeline infrastructure in major areas like PJM, MISO, New York, and New England.
NERC noted the increasing complexity of load forecasting during winter and highlighted the risk of underestimating demand, especially in extreme cold temperatures, affecting overall reliability.
In response to these concerns, both NERC and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission urged lawmakers to address regulatory gaps in ensuring a reliable gas supply during extreme cold events, as highlighted by an inquiry into the power shortages during Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022.
The Winter Storm Elliott inquiry revealed significant stress on both electric and gas systems in the eastern United States, causing unplanned generation losses and nearly 90,500 megawatts out simultaneously. The inquiry found reduced gas flows into pipelines while the demand for heating and power generation spiked, leading to a dramatic decrease in line pressures. This situation narrowly averted significant gas system outages.
In New York City, Consolidated Edison (ED.N) declared an emergency during Elliott, facing a system collapse that could have taken months to restore service in the middle of winter.
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